We propose a new interest rate rule that implements the optimal equilibrium and eliminates all indeterminacy in a canonical New Keynesian model in which the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates (ZLB) is binding. The rule commits to zero nominal interest rates for a length of time that...

This paper compares the effectiveness of date- and state-based forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve since mid-2011 accounting for the influence of disagreement within the FOMC. Effectiveness is investigated through the lens of interest rates’ sensitivity to macroeconomic news and I...

Forward guidance policies are often argued to stimulate economic activity by reducing nominal long term interest rates. We document why a lower nominal long rate is neither necessary nor sufficient for forward guidance to be successful. We determine the mechanisms behind widely varying long rate...

I give necessary and sufficient conditions under which interest-rate feedback rules eliminate aggregate instability by inducing a globally unique optimal equilibrium in a canonical New Keynesian economy with a binding zero lower bound. I consider a central bank that initially keeps interest...

Japan has been in a benign liquidity trap since 1990. In a benign liquidity trap, interest rates approach zero, prices decline, and monetary policy is ineffective but output and employment perform decently. Such a pattern contradicts traditional macro theories. This paper introduces a monetary...

Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent...

This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when the main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is deployed in concert with rate forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), the identification of...

We document that during the Global Recession, US monetary policy easings triggered the "exorbitant duty" of the United States, the issuer of the world's dominant currency, by causing a dollar appreciation and a transfer of wealth from the United States to the rest of the world. This dollar...

We provide evidence that liquidity premia on assets that are more relevant for private agents' intertemporal choices than near-money assets increase in response to expansionary forward guidance announcements. We introduce a structural specification of liquidity premia based on assets'...

Every monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is accompanied by a written statement about the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We exploit this difference to study the relative influences...