This paper examines whether the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has provided markets with systematic clues about its future policy rates. We explain the future fed funds rate changes using Ordered Probit models (sample 1996–2008). We find that timely FOMC meeting...

This paper examines whether monetary data releases by the European Central Bank (ECB) have provided markets with additional clues about the future course of its monetary policy. It conducts a novel econometric approach based on a combination of an Ordered Probit model explaining future policy...

Based on ordered Probit models and twenty years of euro area data, we estimate empirical reaction functions for the ECB's monetary policy and augment them with communication indicators. First, we find that the ECB responded to risks to price stability in line with its primary objective, and that...

This paper examines whether the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has provided markets with systematic clues about its future policy rates. We explain the future fed funds rate changes using Ordered Probit models (sample 1996 to 2008). We find that timely FOMC...