When central banks set nominal interest rates according to an interest rate reaction function, such as the Taylor rule, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation differentials and output gap differentials. In this...

This paper investigates why the forward premium predicts the future depreciation with the "wrong" sign and why the unobserved deviation from rational uncovered interest parity is negatively correlated with and is more volatile than the rationally expected depreciation. We examine the ability of...

When central banks set nominal interest rates according to an interest rate reaction function, such as the Taylor rule, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation differentials and output gap differentials. In this...