We propose a behavioral explanation for the widely reported rejection of the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We distinguish between public and private information and show that overconfidence among investors about the precision of private information can...

We report that excess returns in the bond market exhibit the same features of short-term momentum and long-term reversals that are observed in the equity market. We test whether these findings can be accounted for within a behavioral framework using the expectations of the short yield that are...