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Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887034
Long-term interest rates in a number of small-open inflation targeting economies co-move more strongly with US long-term rates than with short-term rates in those economies. We augment a standard small open-economy model with imperfectly substitutable government bonds and time-varying term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011337163
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843879
Using structural vector autoregression augmented with stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV), we document that in late 2000s there were large spikes in volatility of spreads on peripheral eurozone government bonds. This increased volatility entailed a significant decline in bank credit to nonfinancial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891015
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396
-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313452
This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972
This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. We use a two-step empirical approach. First, we apply a time-varying parameter panel modelling framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011759005
To measure the global spillovers of a Chinese slowdown on the long-term nominal interest rates in the US/Germany, I model the US/German nominal term structure jointly in the post financial crisis (FC) sample, including the Chinese leading indicator as a new factor. I use an affine term structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913804
multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768272