We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...

This study attempts to quantify whether a 4 percent withdrawal rate can still be considered as safe for U.S. retirees in recent years when earnings valuations have been at historical highs and the dividend yield has been at historical lows. We find that the traditional 4 percent withdrawal rule...

Decreased real bond yields substantially increase failure rates for portfolios with an initial 4% withdrawal rate. One way to increase the safe withdrawal rate of a portfolio is to decrease the allocation to bonds and to increase the allocation to stocks. Unfortunately, increasing the allocation...

Bei der Altersvorsorge von Privatanlegern boomt in der derzeitigen Marktsituation die Vermarktung von Riesterverträgen. Verschiedene Anbieter versuchen, sich diesen Markt zu erschließen. Neben den Versicherungen haben auch Banken und Investmentgesellschaften Angebote auf den Markt gebracht. In...

Bei der Altersvorsorge von Privatanlegern boomt in der derzeitigen Marktsituation die Vermarktung von Riesterverträgen. Verschiedene Anbieter versuchen, sich diesen Markt zu erschließen. Neben den Versicherungen haben auch Banken und Investmentgesellschaften Angebote auf den Markt gebracht. In...

We test whether the Nelson and Siegel (1987) yield curve model is arbitrage-free in a statistical sense. Theoretically, the Nelson-Siegel model does not ensure the absence of arbitrage opportunities, as shown by Bjork and Christensen (1999). Still, central banks and public wealth managers rely...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation,...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

Bei der Altersvorsorge von Privatanlegern boomt in der derzeitigen Marktsituation die Vermarktung von Riesterverträgen. Verschiedene Anbieter versuchen, sich diesen Markt zu erschließen. Neben den Versicherungen haben auch Banken und Investmentgesellschaften Angebote auf den Markt gebracht. In...