This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We show that macroeconomic variables as well as monetary policy variables have a significant impact on two factors that capture the variation in yields. An increase in the inflation...

Recent research shows that bond yields are influenced by monetary policy decisions. To learn how this works in an interest rate market that differs significantly from that of the U.S. and Europe, we model Chinese bond yields using the one-year deposit rate as a state variable. We also add the...

It is well documented that bond excess returns are time-varying and that they can be explained by predetermined risk factors. This paper builds a theoretical model to forecast excess returns on treasury bonds in the context of China's unique monetary system. Empirical evidence shows that bond...

Recent empirical studies suggest that demand and supply factors have important effects on bond yields. Both market segmentation and preferred habitat hypothesis are used to explain these demand and supply effects. In this paper, we use an affine preferred-habitat term structure model and the...

Recent empirical studies suggest that demand and supply factors have important effects on bond yields. Both market segmentation and preferred habitat hypothesis are used to explain these demand and supply effects. In this paper, we use an affine preferred-habitat term structure model and the...