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As of this writing in June 2016, the markets are predicting Venezuela to be on the brink of default. On June 1, 2016 …, the 6 month CDS contract traded at about 7000bps which translates into a likelihood of default of over 90%. Our interest … combination with its near-default status, have created a natural experiment. This experiment has the potential to shed light on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969055
Market reports in the summer of 2016 suggest that Venezuela is on the brink of default on upwards of $65 billion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012985927
Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because they have no contractual claims to defined assets and samples of defaults are limited. A geometric version of credit spread is used to derive expected payments, dependent on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307696
productivity. A quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses …-term debt does not shield the country from bad news shocks, and it may even exacerbate default risk. Finally, an increase in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011950496
For the largest 55 German banks, we detect the presence of countercyclical yield seeking in the form of acquisition of high-yielding periphery bonds in the period from Q1 2008 to Q2 2011. This investment strategy is pursued by banks not subject to a bailout, banks characterised by high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268051
For multiple decades, activists have sought to institute an international legal regime that limits the ability of despotic governments to borrow money and then shift those obligations onto more democratic successor governments. Our goal in this article is to raise the possibility of an alternate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910990
this indicates that there is no vicious cycle driving countries into default, the persistence of ratings is high enough …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010519261
The recent increase of interest rate spreads in Europe and their apparent detachment from underlying fundamental variables has generated a debate on multiple equilibria in the sovereign bond market (see Grauwe and Ji (2012)). We critically evaluate this hypothesis, by pointing towards an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659917
The recent increase of interest rate spreads in Europe and their apparent detachment from underlying fundamental variables has generated a debate on multiple equilibria in the sovereign bond market (see De Grauwe and Ji (2012)). We critically evaluate this hypothesis, by pointing towards an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630117
The recent increase of interest rate spreads in Europe and their apparent detachment from underlying fundamental variables has generated a debate on multiple equilibria in the sovereign bond market (see De Grauwe and Ji (2012)). We critically evaluate this hypothesis, by pointing towards an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341164