We propose a tractable class of arbitrage-free models for the term structure of electricity prices, where spot and forward prices are a linear function of latent factors. The modeling approach offers much flexibility in the specification of the factor dynamics by only restricting their...

This paper estimates dynamic factors from the term structure of credit spreads and the term structure of equity option implied volatilities, and it provides a comprehensive characterization of the dynamic relationships among those credit spread factors and equity volatility factors. The paper...

We use a no-arbitrage shadow rate term structure model to estimate investors' views about the timing of monetary policy ‘lift-off' in the United Kingdom over time. Our estimates show that when the UK policy rate was first cut to 0.5%, in March 2009, investors believed that it would remain at...

This paper suggests an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model to retrieve estimates of real interest rates and in flation expectations from the nominal term structure of interest rates which are net of in flation risk premium effects. The paper shows that this model is...

This paper investigates the impact of agents' expectations about future fundamental economic disturbances (news) on macroeconomic dynamics. Several intuitive tests provide insight into the information content of the yield curve and its' ability to identify these 'news' disturbances. Bayesian...

Yield curves are used to imply the forward rates and discount factors from market tradable instruments and are required to discount future cash flows and evaluate the price of all financial contracts. Not all instruments can be included in the yield curve calibration or fitting process, hence we...