We analyze the term structure of real interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and borrowing constraints. Agents are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, which latter may force them into early portfolio liquidation in a bad aggregate state. We...

We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...

This paper suggests an affine term structure model of real interest rates to predict changes in real consumption growth. The model is estimated, jointly, by real interest rates and consumption data, and it is found to be consistent with the consumption smoothing hypothesis. The paper shows that...

This paper suggests an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model to retrieve estimates of real interest rates and in flation expectations from the nominal term structure of interest rates which are net of in flation risk premium effects. The paper shows that this model is...

Robust empirical evidence suggests that a steep slope of the nominal yield curve predicts an increase in the future real activity. We show that the negative of the slope closely traces the variation in the ex-ante real rate. We then argue that the predictive content of the slope for real...

The ability of term spread to forecast U.S. output growth could be improved by two ways: (i) Combining with the Harrod-Domar variable - net saving as a percentage of gross national income - that used to proxy for aggregate supply; and (ii) Using a system of simultaneous equations, in which U.S....

Samuelson's biological theory of interest rate - that population growth rate and interest rate must be the same - affects many countries, especially in shaping their population and retirement policies. This paper proves that he derives his so-called theorem by many tricks, which are, however, in...

Zimbabwe is one nation that has for many years remained on the top list of economies with high interest rates spread. High interest rates are a signal of financial sector inefficiency. The stability of the financial sector is greatly linked to economic growth and economic stability. The study...

The neutral rate of interest is an important concept and communication tool for central banks. We develop a small open economy model with overlapping generations to study the determinants of the neutral real rate of interest in a small open economy. The model captures domestic factors such as...