In this paper we approximate the risk factors of a polynomial arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model by running a sequential set of linear regressions independent across time. This approximation avoids the cost of a full optimization procedure allowing for a simple method to extract the...

This paper suggests term spread regression based tests allowing for time-varying term premium effects, with the aim of explaining the empirical failures of the term spread to forecast future movements in interest rates. To capture the e¤ects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread,...