We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the term structure of nominal interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model, in which both the government and the central bank policy decisions are driven by uncertainty shocks. Our affine yield curve model captures both the shape of...

We outline key steps necessary to reform the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) so as to improve its robustness to manipulation. We first discuss the role of financial benchmarks such as LIBOR in promoting over-the-counter market efficiency by improving transparency. We then describe how to...

This paper analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the term structure of real and nominal interest rates. We derive a general equilibrium model where the real side of the economy is driven by government policy uncertainty and the central bank sets money supply endogenously...

In an attempt to understand the impact of derivative market reforms, this paper focuses on the spreads of centrally cleared CDSs using a unique data set of voluntarily cleared non-financial single-name contracts over the period from January 2009 to June 2013. Controlling for a number of factors...

Implicit in interest rate derivatives are Arrow-Debreu prices (or state price densities, SPDs) that contain fundamental information for risk and portfolio management in interest rate markets. To extract such information from interest rate derivatives, we propose a non-parametric method to...

This paper examines the relationship between the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election and VIX futures term structure and shows that the latter can early indicate changes in the effect of political uncertainty. Specifically, a hump-shaped pattern in VIX futures term structure around the Election, with...

We investigate the association between bond returns and 32 financial statement variables. Our findings show that 17 of the 32 financial statement measures we examine are significantly related to future bond returns. Evidence of inefficiency is more pronounced when institutional investors are...

Mispricing and risk have both been suggested as explanations for the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and firm characteristics such as accruals. As emphasized by Ferson and Harvey (1998) and Berk, Green and Naik (1999), it is difficult to evaluate these competing explanations...

Using a large sample of business groups from more than one hundred countries around the world, we show that group information matters for parent and subsidiary default prediction. Group firms may support each other when in financial distress. Potential group support represents an off-balance...

We document that historical patterns of accruals seasonality predict future stock returns. Firms with historically larger accruals in a given quarter of the year earn lower stock returns when those accruals are expected to be announced. The accruals seasonality spread is significant only in the...