Motivated by an extensive literature showing that government bond yields exhibit a strong non-Markov property, in the sense that moving averages of long-lagged yields significantly improve the predictability of excess bond returns. We then develop a systematic approach of constructing non-Markov...

In this paper, we show that most existing Gaussian dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) can be nested as special cases under a unified Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM)-based framework of GDTSM construction. Our study provides not only a systematic way to examine the commonality of many seemingly...

We build dynamic term structure models using a generalized structure of observable, forward-looking factors, where the dynamics of multi-horizon survey forecasts of inflation, output growth and monetary policy are modelled jointly with the physical process driving their realisations. When...

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the CDS spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts....

This paper develops a novel approach to measure the market expectations and term premia in the term structure of interest rates. Key components of this approach are generic impact measures of state variables in a Gaussian dynamic term structure model. These measures are inherent in a particular...