Spreads of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary significantly in the cross section and over time, but the sources of this variation are not well understood. We document that, in the cross section, MBS spreads adjusted for the prepayment option show a pronounced smile with respect to the...

In this paper we study a fairly general Wiener driven model for the term structure of forward prices. The model, under a fixed martingale measure, Q, consists of two infinite dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The first system is a standard HJM model for (forward) interest...

We develop a novel contract design, the fed funds futures (FFF) variance futures, which reflects the expected realized basis point variance of an underlying FFF rate. The valuation of short-term FFF variance futures is completely model-independent in a general setting that includes the cases...

In the framework of the displaced-diffusion LIBOR market model, we derive the pathwise adjoint method for the iterative predictor-corrector and Glasserman-Zhao drift approximations in the spot measure. This allows us to compute fast deltas and vegas under these schemes. We compare the...

This paper develops a new macro-financial continuous-time model for the term structure of interest rates assuming that the instantaneous interest rate converges to a certain long-term mean level that depends on the business cycle and that the interest rate volatility depends on the interest rate...

This work discusses the calibration of instantaneous Libor correlations in the Libor market model. We extend existing calibration strategies by incorporation of spread option implied correlation information. The correlation structure implied by CMS spread options observed in the present-day's...

Abstract: In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works...

The Libor Market Model (LMM) describes the evolution of a yield curve through equations for a discrete set of forward rates. In the original version, the rate dynamic was log-normal. The rate dynamic has been extended. The main result presented here is a generic approximation that provides an...

This study evaluates the predictive content of the 3-month Euribor contracts futures. We initially show that there is a forecast error on these contracts, on average positive and increasing with the forecast horizon. Then, we propose a method for correcting futures rates thanks to macroeconomic...