This paper provides extensions to existing procedures for representing one-factor no-arbitrage models of the short rate in the form of a tree. It allows a wide range of drift functions for the short rate to be used in conjunction with a wide range of volatility assumptions. It shows that, if the...

A feature of credit markets is the large difference between probabilities of default calculated from historical data and probabilities of default implied from bond prices (or from credit default swaps). This paper illustrates and discusses the reasons for the difference between historical and...

In this paper, we propose a way to construct a single forward-looking model for interest rates, which represents their evolution under both the Q-measure and P-measure (a joint measure model). As is well known, the market prices of contingent claims are independent of investor risk preferences....