This paper shows how to use adaptive particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) by likelihood inference. The procedure is applied to quadratic models for the US and UK during the recent financial crisis. We find that these models...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features: (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

This paper shows how to use adaptive particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) by likelihood inference. The procedure is applied to a quadratic model for the United States during the recent financial crisis. We find that this...

A regime-switching Levy framework, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain as per Chevallier and Goutte (2017), is employed to study US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs). For modelling purposes we assume a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution,...

I study the term structure of credit default swap spreads to understand the dynamics of global and country-specific risk factors in explaining the time-variation in sovereign credit risk. The analysis suggests that the shape of the term structure conveys significant information on the relative...

The shape of the term structure of credit default swap spreads is an informative signal about the relative importance of global and domestic risk factors to the time variation of sovereign credit spreads. Using a geographically dispersed panel of 44 countries, I show that the relative importance...

This paper combines asset pricing theory with deep learning for pricing the cross section of corporate bonds. The proposed deep learning model can flexibly introduce the well-established factors and provide us with deep factors that are not subsumed in those existing factors. The deep factors...

This working paper was written by Patrick Augustin (McGill University and Canadian Derivatives Institute), Mikhail Chernov (University of California Los Angeles, NBER and CEPR), Lukas Schmid (University of Southern California and CEPR) and Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins University).We show...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, theserelationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....