This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

This Selected Issues paper on Turkey discusses the new monetary framework adopted by the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Instead of relying on one interest rate as inflation-targeting, the CBRT resorted to raising it as inflation pressures intensify and lowering it as they abate. The...

This paper discusses key findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) covering the transparency of monetary policy in the Republic of Indonesia. There is a reasonably high degree of transparency in Indonesia’s monetary policy, with much progress having been made over the...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that...

This paper examines the inflation expectations, monetary policy credibility, and dollarization. Country fundamentals have explained variation in sovereign spreads, but external factors play an important role. This paper assesses the role of and prospects for bank-lending from a cyclical and...

The global financial crisis unmasked Serbia’s unsustainable pre-crisis growth model. Looking back, the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) provided effective insurance against a financial meltdown, initiated the needed re-balancing of the economy, but could not prevent large job losses. Looking...

Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets,...

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Israeli economy is in the midst of a deep recession. Waning exports and investment, combined with stagnant private consumption, led to negative growth in 2001 and 2002. The stagnation can be attributed to the burst of the technology bubble,...

This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s, and their changes thereafter. We develop an otherwise standard sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which implies that at...

We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real...