This Selected Issues paper for Indonesia uses a small structural macroeconomics model of the Indonesian economy to analyze the inflation outlook and monetary policy challenges. The Bank of Indonesia (BI) introduced its Inflation Targeting Framework in July 2005 with the goal to reduce inflation...

This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

Sound policies and favorable external conditions have led to a strong economic recovery, but important challenges lie ahead. Uruguay’s near-term economic prospects are generally favorable. The main short-term challenge is rising inflation in the wake of vigorous growth and capital...

This paper quantifies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy using a structural model, the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF). The analysis finds that success of fiscal policy in enhancing macroeconomic stability depends on the type of shock, the response of monetary policy, and...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in Jamaica has been adversely affected by shocks. Real GDP contracted sharply in late 2004 following the devastating effects of Hurricane Ivan. Thereafter, while output recovered, it was dampened by the poor performance of...

Turkey’s Fifth Review and Inflation Consultation under the Stand-By Arrangement and a Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are discussed. Despite sharply higher interest rates, a weaker lira, and lower asset prices, economic activity has remained...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth in Russia has slowed, amid weak investment and external demand. Yet, the economy remains close to full capacity, with unemployment at historic lows and capacity utilization at pre-crisis highs. Short-term indicators are mixed, but...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that...

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these...

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy...