This paper is the first attempt to look at inflation dynamics and monetary transmission mechanisms in Armenia in the context of a full information model containing three interrelated markets: foreign exchange, money, and labor. Using the vector error correction model (VECM) approach, we find...

In this paper, we study the impact of labor market restructuring and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and banks failures are generated through...

This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the...

This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession. This analysis is based on a panel unobserved components model of the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. We find that excess supply pressure...

Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest...

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrates patterns of the wage-price spiral and accompanying fluctuations. During...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation for Ireland reports that economic performance has been impressive, owing in significant measure to sound policies. In line with the global cycle, growth picked up strongly in 2004. Rapid employment growth has been supported by immigration, so the unemployment...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that inflation and the current account deficit in Slovenia are expected to moderate. The main downward risks to growth are lower-than-projected growth in Europe, and a credit crunch in the event that foreign financing of domestic banks dries up. In...

Italy’s economic development after the recession is analyzed in this study. Earnings were hampered by low net interest and high loan-loss provisions, but banks remained profitable. A large and stable retail funding base and ample collateral to access eurosystem refinancing helped Italian...

The staff report for the Sixth Review and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement on Turkey explains the macroeconomic framework and monetary and exchange rate policies. High interest rates, slowing credit growth, and election-related uncertainty were expected to weigh on private...