Our subject is econometric estimation and inference concerning long-run economic equilibria in models with stochastic trends. Our interest is focused on single equation specifications such as those employed in the Error Correction Model (ECM) methodology of David Hendry (1987, 1989 inter alia)...

A method of deriving asymptotics for linear processes is introduced which uses an explicit algebraic decomposition of the linear filter. The method leads to substantial simplifications in the asymptotics and offers a unified approach to strong laws and central limit theory for linear processes....

This paper studies the finite sample distributions of estimators of the cointegrating vector of linear regression models with I(1) variables. Attention is concentrated on the least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) methods analyzed in other recent work (Phillips and Hansen (1988))....

This paper provides an analytical study of spurious regressions involving the levels of economic time series. As asymptotic theory is developed for regressions that relate independent random walks. It is shown that the usual t ratio significance tests do not possess limiting distributions but...

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for residual based tests for cointegration. These tests involve procedures that are designed to detect the presence of a unit root in the residuals of (cointegrating) regressions among the levels of economic time series. Attention is given to the...

This paper studies a class of models where full identification is not necessarily assumed. We term such models partially identified. It is argued that partially identified systems are of practical importance since empirical investigators frequently proceed under conditions that are best...

New time and frequency domain tests for the presence of a unit root are developed. The tests are based on generalized least squares (GLS) methods in both the time and the frequency domains. For the time domain tests, moving average processes are assumed for the error terms on the autoregression....

This paper studies the properties of the von Neumann ratio for time series with infinite variance. The asymptotic theory is developed using recent results on the weak convergence of partial sums of time series with infinite variance to stable processes and of sample serial correlations to...

This paper studies the properties of maximum likelihood estimates of co-integrated systems. Alternative formulations of such models are considered including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. It is shown that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within...

This paper considers tests of nonlinear parametric restrictions in semiparametric econometric models. To date, only Wald tests of such restrictions have been considered in the literature. Here, Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are considered and are shown to...