This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Peru. The economy continued to perform well in 2004. Real GDP grew by 5.1 percent, inflation was 3.5 percent at end-December, and the fiscal deficit of the combined public sector narrowed to 1.1 percent of...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP in South Africa grew by 5 percent in 2006 and continued to grow vigorously in early 2007. Growth was driven by strong domestic demand, with private consumption and investment spending supported by continuing robust consumer and business...

The paper lays out an analytical framework for understanding crises in emerging markets based on examination of stock variables in the aggregate balance sheet of a country and the balance sheets of its main sectors (assets and liabilities). It focuses on the risks created by maturity, currency,...

The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows was examined by a 1984 IMF study on G-7 countries. Over the past two decades, many developments in the world economy, such as the currency crises in the 1990s and increasing cross-border capital flows, may have exacerbated exchange rate...

The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation on the People’s Republic of China highlights economic developments, policy discussions, and structural reforms. A larger external current account surplus, together with strong capital inflows, led to a further sizable increase in gross...

The experiences of Caribbean Economic Community countries show that exchange rate depreciation in these countries is inflationary, and that, while changes in the relative prices of tradables may affect exports, tourism, and imports, nominal exchange rate changes have no predictable effect on...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Kazakhstan focuses on the appropriate policy response to mounting banking sector risks and continuing inflation pressures. Banking sector risks are mounting and inflation remains relatively high. The authorities intend to continue raising...

The principal policy task in Hungary is to place public finances on a sound footing. For monetary policy, the challenge is to identify one-off inflationary influences, communicate these to the public and financial markets, and deal with second-round effects. From a risk-management perspective, a...