Subjective beliefs play a role in many economic decisions. There is a large theoretical literature on the elicitation … of beliefs, and an equally large empirical literature. However, there is a gulf between the two. The theoretical … literature proposes a range of procedures that can be used to recover beliefs, but stresses the need to make strong auxiliary …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

Understanding choice under risk requires knowledge of beliefs and preferences. A variety of methods have been proposed … to elicit peoples’ beliefs. The efficacy of alternative methods, however, has not been rigorously documented. Herein we … use an experiment to test whether an induced probability can be recovered using an elicitation mechanism based on peoples …

For our experiment on corruption, we designed a coordination game to model the influence of risk attitudes, beliefs … failed to explain their choices between corrupt and non-corrupt behavior. Instead, beliefs appeared to be a better predictor …

treatment. After the real effort task subjects were asked to state their retrospective beliefs about their performance in public …

. Besides making choices, decision makers have to state their first- and second-order beliefs. We find that teams play the Nash … strategy significantly more often, and their choices are more often consistent by being a best reply to first order beliefs. We … to textbook rationality. Using a mixture model, the estimated probability to play strategically is 62% for teams, but …

making choices, subjects have to state their first- and second-order beliefs. We find that choices are more often a best … reply to beliefs if any player has a dominant strategy and equilibrium payoffs are not too unequal. Using a mixture model we … can estimate for each subject the probability to be any of eight different strategic and non-strategic types. The …

exerted by the individual beliefs about the cooperation of others in CPR management. …