Kendall, Chad; Oprea, Ryan - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 15 (2024) 1, pp. 175-211
We experimentally study how people form predictive models of simple data generating processes (DGPs), by showing subjects data sets and asking them to predict future outputs. We find that subjects: (i) often fail to predict in this task, indicating a failure to form a model, (ii) often cannot...