This paper argues that studying the effect of financial development and shocks on aggregate growth volatility will not be informative because they affect growth volatility through its different components. Volatility declines either a consequence of a change in the nature of shocks or a change...

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles in asset markets and regions. Using a large sample of 38 advanced and emerging economies to enable a comparative assessment, the analysis conforms with the prevailing literature on financial cycles pertaining to advanced economies,...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach is used to first assess the contribution of credit and asset price variables to real...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles in asset markets and regions. Using a large sample of 38 advanced and emerging economies to enable a comparative assessment, the analysis conforms with the prevailing literature on financial cycles pertaining to advanced economies,...