This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one-quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range...

This paper examines the roles of domestic and international variables in predicting classical business cycle regimes in Germany, France, Italy and the UK over the period 1970 to 2001. A range of real and financial variables are used as leading indicators in domestic models, with these variables...