This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market...

We examine the patterns and determinants of business-cycle correlations among eleven UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-1997 period, using GMM to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase...

This paper examines the proposition that the business cycle affects seasonality in industrial production, with output being switched to the traditionally low production summer months when recent (annual) growth has been strong. This is investigated through the use of a restricted threshold...

To date, there has been little investigation of the impact of seasonal adjustment on the detection of business cycle expansion and recession regimes. We study this question both analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations. Analytically, we view the occurrence of a single business cycle...

Recent literature has uncovered evidence that the seasonal pattern in industrial production changes over the business cycle, with seasonality being less pronounced in periods of high growth than in the low growth (or recession) business cycle phase. Matas-Mir and Osborn (2002) examine this...

This paper presents a simple stochastic growth model in which productivity improvements are the result of both internal (deliberate) and external (serendipitous) learning behaviour. The model is used to illustrate how these different mechanisms of endogenous technological change can lead to...

The bulk of literature on real rigidity attempts to identify sources of real rigidity in market imperfections while assuming that the money supply is exogenously set. This paper shows that monetary policy preferences affect the responsiveness of marginal cost to output and through this channel...