This paper discusses the paper "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions" by Neville Francis and Valerie A. Ramey. It argues that these authors have made great progress both in the precise measurement of labor input as well as determining the effect...

In most manufacturing industries output is adjusted in a lumpy way along three margins: shiftwork, weekend work, and closing a plant temporarily down. We incorporate such decisions into a dynamic general equilibrium model and study: (i) if such micro-level nonconvexities magnify business cycles;...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of volatility in GDP real growth rates for Portugal over the period 1960-2010. The objectives of this paper are threefold: (1) to assess the occurrence of “the Great Moderation” in Portugal and identify the timings of volatility changes; (2) to...

Unlike usual estimation techniques, we follow Clark (1989) to estimate the correlation between the transitory components of unemployment and output as part of a system of correlations between the permanent and transitory components of both series. This model provides better estimate of the...

Early studies of business cycles argued that contractions in economic activity were briefer (shorter) and more violent (rapid) than expansions. This paper systematically investigates this claim and in the process discovers a robust new business cycle fact: expansions and contractions in output...

We use a new registry micro level data set to study firm dynamics in Denmark. A unique feature of the data allows us to gain more information about older firms (operating for 30+ years), and an important proportion of these firms shows deteriorating productivity and rising exit rates. We find...

How do changes in market structure affect the US business cycle? We estimate a monetary DSGE model with endogenous firm/product entry and a translog expenditure function by Bayesian methods. The dynamics of net business formation allow us to identify the "competition effect", by which desired...

A VAR model estimated on U.S. data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and...

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...