This paper addresses the important question of how far a government will run down its stock of foreign reserves in a defense of a fixed exchange rate. An optimizing model of currency crisis is presented in which the decision of whether or not to borrow in a defense of a peg is explicitly...

Could a high-access, quick-disbursing "insurance facility" in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows ("sudden stops")? We contribute to the debate around this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden...

This paper studies the implications of foreign currency deposits (FCDs) for international liquidity shortages in Pakistan. The analysis focuses on how the large volume of FCDs and the specific institutional characteristics of those deposits have made the Pakistan economy highly vulnerable to...

In recent years, the South Caucasus and Central Asia countries (CCA-6) have received significant foreign exchange inflows. While a healthy reserve buffer is desirable to selfinsure against external crises, holding international reserves also involves costs. We analyze the adequacy of CCA-6...

Recent turbulence in global and Caribbean regional financial markets underscore the importance of reassessing the adequacy of international reserves held by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). Using the Jeanne (2007) optimization framework, this paper finds that international reserves...

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that after four years of strong growth, economic activity in Cyprus has tailed off since late 2001, affected by the global economic slowdown. The authorities estimate growth for 2002 to have declined to 2.3 percent, with falling tourist arrivals and...

While the relationship between volatility and credit risk is central to much of the literature on finance and banking, it has been largely neglected in empirical macro studies on sovereign defaults. This paper presents new econometric estimates for a panel of 25 emerging market countries over...

Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges...

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was adversely affected by a series of external and domestic shocks in 2009, including the global economic slowdown, the shutdown of international capital markets, and the impact of the bursting Dubai property bubble in mid-2008. Oil receipts plummeted, global trade...