This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In...

This is the fourth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation- Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines a number of issues related to transparency and accountability in an inflation-targeting regime. It first looks at the...

This is the third chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines a number of elements in the design of an inflation-targeting framework. These include the definition of the target...

This is the tenth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled, "On Implementing Full- Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It describes the experiences of a number of countries with the introduction and implementation of inflation targeting regimes. It...

This is the fifth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines whether certain conditions have to be met before emerging economies can adopt an inflation-targeting regime and...

This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation-output process that arise from convexity in the Phillips curve and endogenous monetary policy credibility. We find that the dynamic responses to shocks in the extended model more closely...

This paper lays out a structural model that incorporates key features of monetary transmission in typical emerging-market economies, including a bank-credit channel and the role of external debt accumulation on country risk premia and exchange rate dynamics. We use an SVAR representation of the...

Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some...

Stochastic simulations are employed to compare performance of monetary policy rules in linear and nonlinear variants of a small macro model with NAIRU uncertainity under different assumptions about the way inflation expectations are formed. Cases in which policy credibility is ignored or treated...

The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they...