This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial...

This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to...

This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...

This paper examines the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2003 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria. Through September 2002, overall performance under the PRGF-supported program was...

This paper examines Colombia’s 2002 Article IV Consultation and Request for Stand-By Arrangement. The economic situation worsened in the first half of 2002. Economic activity has remained sluggish, and the fiscal consolidation has gone off-track. Exacerbated by increased contagion from...

The Kingdom of Lesotho’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the government’s fiscal position and the external current account have improved markedly. The authorities are preparing an action plan, in collaboration with development partners, to improve the business climate....

Madagascar showed strong economic growth and low inflation under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Executive Directors commended these developments, and stressed the need to restore fiscal discipline, improve governance, strengthen the business climate to encourage...

Several years of high inflation rates have negatively affected economic conditions in Angola. Macroeconomic stabilization in Angola entails strict control over central bank credit to the government, an ending of the quasi-fiscal expenditures, and a reduction of the national bank of...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes economic and agricultural developments, and the impact of land reforms of Zimbabwe. The paper summarizes the quantitative estimates of the fiscal burden and overall medium-term macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS on Zimbabwe. It reviews the debt restructuring,...