In the last few years new techinques able to help in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations have been developed. Following the article o fBlanchard (1989), concerning US macroeconomic data we will examine the UK economy using a new methodology, the so called "Structural" VAR analysis, developed...

For non-stationary vector autoregressive models (VAR hereafter, or VAR with moving average, VARMA hereafter), we show that the presence of common cyclical features or cointegration leads to a reduction of the order of the implied univariate autoregressive-moving average (ARIMA hereafter) models....

One strand of the recent literature on the monetary transmission process has focued upon the weak empirical evidence of a liquidity effect in the U.S. This study uses structural VAR methods to reexamine the liquidity effect.

This paper examines data for stock prices and price levels of 14 developed countries during the post-WWII era and compares their behavior in that sample with behavior over the past two centuries in the UK and the US. Contrary to much of the literature of the past several decades, we find that...

We investigate the consequences of the 1992-1993 EMS crises, which resulted in the widening of the exchange rate bands, on the long-run linkages between the daily 1-month-Eurorates on German Mark, US-Dollar and French Franc. First, within a Gaussian VAR, both the US Eurorate and the...

This paper deals with the Tanzi method for the estimation of underground economy. The approach is discussed and modified. Refinements on the variables and on the econometric technique are proposed. The “adjusted” Tanzi method is then used to estimate the shadow economy in Italy along...

This paper re-examines the money demand in Malaysia covering the period from 1974 to 2001, a period characterised by various events particularly the financial sector liberalisation, changes in monetary framework and currency crises. Our results support the existence of fairly stable long-run...

This paper reassesses the long-run relation between nominal interest rates and inflation using German data. It shows that the empirical rejection of the strict Fisher effect in previous studies, i.e., the finding of interest rates not fully adjusting to changes in inflation, can be attributed to...

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU-member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU-member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) and in the USA. Both the long-run...