Although nonlinearity is the rule in economic theory, nonlinearity tends to make life difficult for econometricians. While there have been many advances in nonlinear econometrics in recent years, some problems produced by nonlinearity remain 'skeletons in the closet' in empirical economic...

The paper examines the relationship between UK wholesale gas prices and the Brent oil price over the period 1996-2003. Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long run equilibrium relationship between UK gas and oil prices predates the opening of the...

This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship...

This paper examines data for stock prices and price levels of 14 developed countries during the post-WWII era and compares their behavior in that sample with behavior over the past two centuries in the UK and the US. Contrary to much of the literature of the past several decades, we find that...

This paper discusses the econometric model of inflation processes in the Republic of Belarus which makes it possible to explain major factors determining the dynamics of the GDP deflator, consumer price index and producer price index during the period 1994 - 2003. For estimation of the model the...

This paper develops a simple sequential multiple horizon non-causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a rolling window study of money supply and real income, with the price of oil, the unemployment rate and the spread between...

Understanding the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is important in enhancing the economy of a nation. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach, this study finds that stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in...

Most people seem to think that Russia’s economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this...

This paper examines data for stock prices and price levels of 14 developed countries during the post-WWII era and compares their behavior in that sample with behavior over the past two centuries in the UK and the US. Contrary to much of the literature of the past several decades, we find that...

We investigate the consequences of the 1992-1993 EMS crises, which resulted in the widening of the exchange rate bands, on the long-run linkages between the daily 1-month-Eurorates on German Mark, US-Dollar and French Franc. First, within a Gaussian VAR, both the US Eurorate and the...