the time of the election. We exploit this variation to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We … find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict …We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between …

rivals of a different affiliation. The overall patterns of conflict in continental Europe as well as those between the …

examine the roles of ethnicity and religion in conflict and war. Based on one theory, the Ottoman conquests were driven by the …

ultimate determinants of conflict. However, fractionalization in all its demographic forms is endogenous in the long run. In … the relationship between fractionalization and the propensity of internal conflict statistically insignificant. Finally …

rivals of a different affiliation. The overall patterns of conflict in continental Europe as well as those between the …

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many … channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to … explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict …

polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the chances of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that …Does secessionism lead to social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to …. However, polarization does not necessarily lead to violence. We explore the case of Catalonia, a region that experienced a …

polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the chances of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that …Does secessionism lead to social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to …. However, polarization does not necessarily lead to violence. We explore the case of Catalonia, a region that experienced a …

able to better identify the effect of ethnolinguistic polarization on the civil conflict in the country. We find that, for … each of our polarization indices, there is a positive effect on the conflict. The historical underpinnings of our indices …Polarization measures, that are used in examining the empirical relationship between ethnic divisions and violent …

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, we develop the measurement theory of polarization for the case in which … polarization indices that can be used to compare polarization across time or entities. Distribution-free statistical inference … results are also derived in order to ensure that the orderings of polarization across entities are not simply due to sampling …