Replaced with revised version of paper 04/20/10.

Improved software now makes Bayesian estimation a strong alternative to nonlinear maximum likelihood. Bayesian methods were used to estimate a linear response stochastic plateau for cotton and were shown to provide estimates similar to maximum likelihood. Optimal levels of nitrogen were lower...

The objective of this article is to propose the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible way to estimate conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment based model that extends previous approaches in several dimensions, and can be easily estimated using...

This paper studies the effect of electronic trade on the quality of market price discovery, using the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures market as a laboratory to measure market quality under periods of floor trade, parallel floor and electronic trade, and electronic-only trade....

This paper shows that the response of agricultural commodity prices in the U.S. related to fluctuations in oil prices in the international market may differ greatly depending on whether the increase is driven by demand or supply shocks in the crude oil market. In the long-run, around 2-7 percent...

Texas dryland upland cotton yields have historically exhibited greater variation and more distributional irregularities than the yields of other crops, raising concerns that conventional parametric distribution models may generate biased or otherwise inaccurate crop insurance premium rate...

Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for...

Soil acidity and cotton yields are influenced by cover crop, nitrogen, and tillage method. Applying half the recommended lime rate may be possible without reducing cotton yields. Using a nitrogen intensive cover crop and applying less nitrogen should mitigate the effects on soil acidity and yields.

The success of the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWE) Program is believed to be one factor underlying the recent increase in cotton acreage in the Southeast. We find weak evidence that the initial, eradication phase of the BWE program decreases cotton acreage, and strong evidence that the second,...

This study evaluates all USDA cotton supply and demand estimates for the United States and China (including unpublished price forecasts) from 1985/86 through 2009/10 for accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal that at every stage of the forecasting cycle forecast smoothing was the most...