Romania’s external position continues to improve. Inflation peaked in December 2010, and is now likely to decline. Financial market stress has remained relatively low in recent months. The current account deficit improved from 13½ percent of GDP in 2007 to about 4¼ percent of GDP in...

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the...

There is an urgent need to re-establish a viable external position through a comprehensive, swift, and sustained policy adjustment. The fiscal adjustment will need to rest on both wide-ranging tax revenue measures and substantial expenditure restraint, including a freeze of current expenditure....

This paper reviews the IMF’s discussions with Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s (ECCU) regional institutions. Discussions focused on the outlook for 2003 and the policy responses needed to arrest the fiscal deterioration and to achieve consolidation over the medium term. Although...

This paper on the Baltic countries analyzes medium-term fiscal issues related to European Union (EU) and NATO accession. The paper supports the Baltic authorities’ intention to aim at balancing their budgets over the economic cycle. The paper describes the Baltics’ current fiscal...

This paper reviews the Interim Staff Report Under Intensified Surveillance for Jamaica. Following the adverse economic impact of Hurricane Ivan, the outlook for FY 2005/06 is for a rebound in growth in the context of broad macroeconomic stability. Real GDP growth slowed, and damage to...

This paper reviews the Interim Staff Report Under Intensified Surveillance for Jamaica. The authorities have reaffirmed their objective of balancing the budget in FY 2005/06, while recognizing that this now poses a greater challenge. The IMF staff now estimates that measures in the range of...

Despite repeated shocks, the United States economy has provided valuable support for global growth. Executive Directors commended this development, and stressed the need to tighten fiscal and monetary policies. They welcomed the assessment of the fiscal transparency Reports on Observance of...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economic growth languished in 2004 for a fourth consecutive year. Slow growth reflected the weakness of, and increasing competition in, Malta’s export markets, as well as domestic factors. The slowdown had begun with shocks...