In this note, the authors reexamine the issue of debt sustainability in a large group of advanced economies. Their hypothesis is that, when debt is in a moderate range, its dynamics are sustainable in the sense that increases in debt elicit sufficient increases in primary fiscal balances to...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...

This paper examines the various roles of IMF financing in crisis prevention. Emerging market economies that experienced financial crises in the past have been subject to enormous economic and social costs, highlighting the importance of crisis prevention. While the main defense against a crisis...

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Nigeria. All assessment criteria through end-September were met except for one civil service-related measure. Remedial measures have prevented the civil service reform program from being compromised....

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Barbados has been growing at a solid pace, and the outlook for 2007 is generally favorable. Robust output growth of about 4 percent is expected to continue in 2007, supported by tourism and construction. Inflation, which was pushed...

Albania enjoyed strong growth with comparatively benign external vulnerabilities before the crisis. Monetary policy provided timely support, and the exchange rate functioned as a shock absorber. However, policy buffers are now exhausted and must be rebuilt. Fiscal tightening has to be quickly...

The Slovak Republic’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that sound macroeconomic management and a wide range of fundamental structural reforms are supporting nominal convergence with European Union norms. Real GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in 2005, driven by an improvement in the...

This paper reviews the Central African Republic’s three-year arrangement under the poverty reduction and growth facility. Concerns about the social impact of higher fuel prices have delayed implementation of an automatic pricing formula and caused serious fiscal losses. The new financing...