Socio-economic criteria for climate projects have been used in analysing the value of the climate benefit of a reduction in CO2. These reports are optimistic, yet CCS demonstration plants are not implemented as expected. Little attention has been devoted to profitability assessments based on...

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that...

Probability forecasts play an important role in many decision and risk analysis applications. Research and practice over the years have shown that the shift towards distributional forecasts provides a more accurate and appropriate means of capturing risk in models for these applications. This...