Chang, C-L.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; McAleer, M.J. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2010
Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the...