In recent years the term “fear of floating” has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has...

Migration is an important component of contemporary society. Leaving the homeland for a better life and a well paid job is currently the most dynamic form of working population movement. For the host countries migration provides experienced cheap workforce capable of high performance. But the...

This paper investigates the impact of the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy on both the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts and the sluggishness of economic growth. It first posits the Gaussian process Zt (indexed by the Hurst exponent H) as the output of a reflexive dynamic input/output system governed...

From Adam Smith’s perspective, the most prominent macroeconomic happening of the post-World War II period was not the Great Moderation, nor was it the recent Great Recession. Instead, it was the secular deceleration in economic growth occurring in the U.S., or the Great Deceleration. Smith’s...

This paper develops a growth model of a country under a Hobbesian environment with international conflicts where national defense is the only way to prevent external predation. The long run growth path is determined by the equilibrium of a dynamic game with three players, the external predator,...