Two empirical relationships about the effect of oil prices on the U.S. economy are well accepted. The first is that while oil price increases lowered real GDP growth in the 1970?s, since then changes in oil prices have had no significant effect on U.S. economic activity. Second, while oil price...

United States trade and current-account deficits have risen sharply in recent years. The current account deficit reached 4.27 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2000, and will probably exceed that slightly in the third quarter. The U.S. trade deficit reached 4.06 percent of GDP in the...

The United States is almost alone among industrial countries in having no monetary standard. It has, that is, no institutionalized guarantee or even explicit objective concerning the purchasing power of its money. Between 1971 and 1990, this was true of most industrial countries but since then...

Much of this paper was presented at the Cato Institute conference on Monetary Policy in the New Economy, October 19, 2000, Washington, D.C.

Economic growth continues to exceed reasonable estimates of sustainable growth, as last year?s monetary easing is stimulating domestic demand. In 1999, real GDP will grow nearly 4 percent for the fourth consecutive year, despite the negative impact of trade. While the Federal Reserve?s recent...

In its quest to understand and anticipate Federal Reserve behavior, Wall Street economists ad journalists have mined the activity in labor markets to help foretell inflationary price pressures. Earlier during the current expansion, journalists and many academics viewed the low rate of...

In the past 3 1/2 years the U.S. has experienced strong economic growth, low inflation and productivity growth noticeably above the average of the previous two decades. In some corners there is a strong belief that this increase in productivity growth is the beginning of a resurgence in...

The U.S. economy has exhibited remarkable flexibility and resilience to international and financial turmoil. In 1998, amid violent fluctuations in financial markets and foreign exchange, decelerating economic growth in Europe, ongoing recession in Japan and selected Asian nations, and sharp...

In a luncheon speech at the AEA meeting on January 3, 1999, Stanley Fischer argued the case, in a reformed international financial system for ?an agency that will act as lender of last resort for countries facing a crisis.? He asserts that there is a need for such an agency and ?that the IMF is...

International crises and uncertainty abound, yet the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound after over 7 years of continuous expansion, and is well positioned and sufficiently flexible to absorb the recent external shocks from Asia and the stock market correction. Economic growth is expected...