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Housing cycles and exchange rates
Ma, Sai; Zhang, Shaojun - 2019
This paper documents that the housing cycle, measured by the residential investment share, is a strong in-sample and … out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk … nontradable housing consumption. The predictability for excess returns in foreign currencies and other assets arises endogenously …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120212
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People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; 2012 Article IV Consultation Discussions
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2013
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR)'s healthy labor market and supportive fiscal policy helped its domestic economy's resilience, while its gross domestic product (GDP) growth was marginally slow owing to its weak external environment. Its fiscal policy has been effective in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244791
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People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; 2011 Article IV Consultation Discussions
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2011
The Executive Board of the IMF has concluded the consultation discussions with the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hong Kong SAR has rebounded from the global financial crisis, and growth should be at 5¾ percent this year. Unemployment has fallen to low levels, and real incomes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245804
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Benin; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
This paper examines the external sustainability and competitiveness of Benin’s economy. Balance of payments flows suggest Benin’s external position is sustainable. Large trade and current account deficits are comfortably financed by inflows through the capital and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245132
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Niger; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2009
This Selected Issues Paper and Statistical Appendix for Niger are discussed. The Nigerien economic outlook has been improving since 1999. After a long period of decline in per capita income, growth accelerated through 2007, attaining an annual average of 4 percent, or about 1 percent in per...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245770
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PPP Strikes Back; Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate
Mumtaz, Haroon; Imbs, Jean; Ravn, Morten O.; Rey, Helene - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248142
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Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model
Kumhof, Michael; Nieuwerburgh, Stijn van - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
Standard theory shows that sterilized foreign exchange interventions do not affect equilibrium prices and quantities, and that domestic and foreign currency denominated bonds are perfect substitutes. This paper shows that when fiscal policy is not sufficiently flexible in response to spending...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248240
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External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule
Ostry, Jonathan David; Montiel, Peter - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992
This paper shows that the response of inflation to external shocks is very different when the authorities target the real exchange rate than when they follow a fixed exchange rate or a preannounced crawling peg. Specifically, shocks that would have no effect on the steady-state inflation rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248257
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Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments
Bodnar, Gordon M.; Bartolini, Leonardo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992
This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248258
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The Distributional Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Adjustment
Klyuev, Vladimir - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
The paper focuses on distributional consequences of macroeconomic adjustment. The preferences of economic agents over the level of the real exchange rate derived from standard models are monotonic, with agents favoring either an infinitely appreciated or depreciated rate. To generate less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248306