This paper is an empirical investigation into the duration of exchange rate episodes characterized by the absence of speculative attacks. We estimate a duration model for OECD countries during the 1970-1997 period. Specifically, we use semi-parametric methods to estimate model with unrestricted...

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industrial countries. A panel probit estimation finds these economic indicators to be...

The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels and with a variety of apparently conflicting results. For instance, there is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad...

The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital inflows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate...

Since beginning economic transition, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia have—with much success—employed diverse exchange rate regimes. As these countries approach EU accession, they will need to avoid the perils of too much or too little exchange rate variability when...

Speculative attacks on fixed or ‘fixed but adjustable’ exchange rate regimes seem to have become a standard feature of the landscape of foreign exchange markets. The supposed excesses of seemingly untethered financial markets have been documented for some time, but only recently...

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of, and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987-2007. Episodes of large...

This paper argues that, in improving the efficient allocation of resources, financial sector development could dampen the appreciation effect of capital inflows. Using dynamic panel data techniques, the paper finds that the exchange rate appreciation effect of FDI inflows is indeed attenuated...

This paper examines the interaction between capital flows and international reserve holdings in the context of increasing financial integration. For emerging markets the sensitivity of reserves to net capital flows was negative in the 1980s, but became positive after the Asian crisis when these...

This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone...