Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out...

The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle no longer existed. As more and more economists and media people became convinced that the risk of recessions had...

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...

Standard simple-sum monetary aggregates, like M3, sum up monetary assets that are imperfect substitutes and provide different transaction and investment services. Divisia monetary aggregates, originated from Barnett (1980), are derived from economic aggregation and index number theory and aim to...

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...

The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which some commentators and economists believed that the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle volatility had declined to low levels. As more and more economists...

On 23 June 2010, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and SUERF jointly organised a conference on "The Future of Banking in CESEE after the Financial Crisis", incorporating the SUERF Annual Lecture, delivered by Manfred Schepers, Vice President, Finance at the European Bank for Reconstruction and...

On 23 June 2010, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and SUERF jointly organised a conference on "The Future of Banking in CESEE after the Financial Crisis", incorporating the SUERF Annual Lecture, delivered by Manfred Schepers, Vice President, Finance at the European Bank for Reconstruction and...

Despite impressive studies on financial crises consequences and foreign capital flows, by large the research done has examined these economic phenomenons separately without addressing their nexus. This paper aims at bridging this gap by examining the impact of financial crises on bilateral...

Recent work done within the CNCSIS IDEI ID_1046 financed project has resulted in some ideas related to complex system behaviour and to certain ways in which this behaviour may be described using nonlinear models especially in relation to the evolution of the PIB and its components. We are...