This Selected Issues paper examines implications for long-term bond yields in case of Japan. The analysis finds that so far, upward pressure on interest rates from high public debt has been offset by domestic factors, including a stable investor base with a preference for safe assets. As these...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent macroeconomic developments in The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia are encouraging, with a significant deceleration in inflation and continued robust economic growth. Despite significant decline in coffee prices and supply...

Sweden’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that strong productivity gains, wage moderation, and falling nonenergy import prices contributed to reducing inflation, and creating room for aggressive monetary easing. Export growth has been led by a strong recovery in the telecommunications...

The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The results suggest that structural reforms in core...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economic recovery is gaining traction, owing in large part to cyclical strength and some structural change. A public investment boom, financed largely by grants from the European Union, reignited growth in 2005. A modest recovery...

Barbados’s 2008 Article IV Consultation is focused on policies to balance the conflicting risks to inflation, growth, and medium-term sustainability. Although the government has maintained some policy space by postponing the liberalization of the capital account, its options are...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic performance of Ireland remains strong, supported by sound policies. The growth rate of real GNP per capita continues to be one of the highest among advanced economies and the unemployment rate one of the lowest. However, in recent years,...

The paper assesses the impact of fiscal spillovers on growth in the context of a coordinated exit from crisis management policies. We find that despite potentially sizeable domestic effects from consolidation, aggregate negative spillovers to other countries are likely to be contained in...

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted debt ratio with primary fiscal surpluses. Based on quarterly estimates of this...

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally...