Everywhere in the industrialized world, population aging is putting social security systems under financial strain. As a result, social security systems are being reformed in many countries. In particular, various countries move from pure pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems to pension systems that...

The failure of key EU Member States to respect the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) a few years after its inception triggered a heated debate on how to reform the framework of fiscal policy coordination in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This paper systematically...

Based on the conceptual framework developed by the European Commission for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth, this study examines empirically the key channels through which fiscal policy impacts economic growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the EU. The...

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and...

Prior to the launch of the euro, academics and policymakers were concerned that the loss of the monetary policy instrument would deprive participating countries of a vital tool to respond to country-specific economic shocks. This concern was rooted in the generally accepted proposition that...

Cover pagesText AnnexesThe purpose of this paper is to analyse budgetary policies carried out during and after severe recessions. Since the agreement on the "Stability and Growth Pact" by the European Council in Dublin in December 1996, interest in this issue has increased significantly. The...

This paper uses an estimated DSGE model for the euro area to study the effects of fiscal stabilisation policies. There are at least two features of the euro area economy which makes this analysis interesting. First, there are nominal rigidities in goods and labour markets, and there are...

This paper presents results of an on-going joint European Commission / OECD project, aimed at monitoring the direct influence of tax and benefit instruments on household incomes. Indicators of financial work incentives are needed for identifying any undesired influences of taxes and social...

Forecast errors are large in the recently acceded Member States and the mistakes have a similar order of magnitude in the Commission services' forecasts, Consensus forecasts and projections made by national authorities. The prediction mistakes cannot be attributed to bias or autocorrelation....

The paper looks at the evidence on the widespread hypothesis in the academic literature and by some of the new Member States' governments that accession will bring about fiscal strains and requires higher budget deficits. It starts by calculating the expected new Member States' payments from the...