In this note, the authors reexamine the issue of debt sustainability in a large group of advanced economies. Their hypothesis is that, when debt is in a moderate range, its dynamics are sustainable in the sense that increases in debt elicit sufficient increases in primary fiscal balances to...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

We examine the economic and electoral effects of liberalisation measures using newlyconstructed databases on structural economic reforms and the outcome of democratic elections since the 1970s. The data shows a remarkable slowdown in the pace of liberalisation in both advanced and emerging...

This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...

This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting...

This study examines external and domestic influences on Latin America’s economic performance over the past decade and a half. It notes that over the past few years, macroeconomic policies have strengthened and structural reforms have been implemented. Together with a favorable external...

This paper examines the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2003 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria. Through September 2002, overall performance under the PRGF-supported program was...