This Working Paper presents an overview of structural budget balance models and the adjustments most relevant for Australia. Three models (the OECD model, the IMF model and Treasury’s previously published model in the Australian Government’s 2009-10 Budget and McDonald et al (2010)) are...

In this paper we propose a new methodology to improve the estimation of structural budget balances in Slovakia. Major innovations compared to currently used methods are in using more robust output gap estimates, inclusion of pensions in the analysis, imposing consistency between various gap...

Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, fiscal sustainability as a research area became more and more popular. This paper aims to assess the predicting power of the basic types of the following five fiscal sustainability indicators: primary gap (1), stationary tests for public debt (2),...

This paper provides estimates for the structural fiscal balance for the Romanian economy over the period 1998-2008. The calculation of the structural fiscal balance is useful, since it provides a clear picture of the fiscal stance of the economy and it is essential in the context of a medium...

This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...

This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...

The paper presents time series for Danish general government net lending in the period 1875-2003 and analyses the long-term term fiscal development in Denmark. Even though Denmark today has one of the largest public sectors in Europe, relatively speaking, the Danish general government's deficit...

Cyclically adjusted government budget balance has often been used in the evaluation of fiscal stance. It indicates how much room fiscal authorities have to act anticyclically. The main idea is to separate temporary (cyclical) effects on the budget from those caused by discretionary measures of...

Should the government run fiscal deficits in response to an adverse external shock that warrants transfer of resources from production of non-traded to traded goods? This paper considers normative fiscal policy implications of sectoral adjustment costs in a two-sector model with overlapping...

The economy of the European Union has not recovered from the impact of the economic and financial crisis. Growth rates remain low and investment activity is weak. This questions current economic policies of the Economic and Monetary Union, known as austerity. In opposition to fiscal contraction...