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Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy

Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto - 2021

analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168653

Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting

2021

) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it … bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661646

Forecasting private investment in Finland using Q-theory and frequency decomposition

Nippala, Veera; Sinivuori, Taina - 2023

We look for a forecasting model for private investments in Finland. As explanatory variables, we use different proxies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423957

Externalities and market failures of cryptocurrencies

Hokkanen, Topi - 2023

This paper discusses the externalities and market failures in cryptocurrency markets. In particular, I highlight the significant environmental externalities created by Proof-of-Work (PoW) cryptocurrencies, the most prominent of which is Bitcoin. The main goals of this paper are to quantify these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423971

Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries

Nickel, Christiane (contributor); Bobeica, Elena (contributor) - 2019

Despite notable improvements in the labour market since 2013, wage growth in the euro area was subdued and substantially overpredicted in 2013-17. This paper summarises the findings of an ESCB expert group on the reasons for low wage growth and provides comparable analyses on wage developments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141429

On the Purpose of Models - the Norges Bank Experience

Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Nicolaisen, Jon - 2011

Macroeconomic models are important ingredients in the monetary policy process, and, in the Norwegian case, projecting a forward interest rate path. In this paper we argue that when deciding on a model strategy, it is crucial to consider the purpose of models. If the purpose is to understand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144011

The Financial Accelerator and the Real Economy: A Small Macroeconometric Model for Norway with Financial Frictions

Hammersland, Roger; Træe, Cathrine Bolstad - 2012

forecasting properties of theory-informed macroeconometric models. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144029

A high-frequency financial conditions index for Norway

Bowe, Frida; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò - 2023

We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551613

Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway

Bowe, Frida; Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Lindalen, Ingvild Hagen; … - 2023

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551740

ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis: Development, current practices and prospective challenges

Ciccarelli, Matteo (contributor); … - 2024

in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio … of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they can in principle be used for economic forecasting, scenario and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565152