We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different sectors - industry, services, construction, and agriculture - across the four largest euro area economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By...

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call dynamic pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, with and without financial frictions, for output...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...

In this paper, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

Our objective has been to experiment with diverse economic indicators in order to help equip Ukrainian policymakers with a relatively simple tool, which could deliver warning signals about a possibility of upcoming economic problems and thereby assist the Government in designing policy...

Forecast models that take into account unbalanced datasets have recently attracted substantial attention. In this paper, we focus on different methods pro- posed so far in the literature to deal with mixed-frequency and ragged-edge datasets: bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), and...

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...

The project has undertaken the following tasks: Based on an analysis of the pattern of growth of the Ukrainian economy since the end of the post-Soviet recession (the year 2000) we have formulated the hypotheses concerning the factors preceding/affecting the upturns and downturns (with a focus...