This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

The aim of this paper is to develop and apply Neural Network (NN) models in order to forecast regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are statistical tools based on learning algorithms with a distribution over a large amount of quantitative data. NNs are increasingly deployed in the social...

This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to confine our analysis on four indices which are the...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...

In order to explore the predictability of the Manhattan office market, a three-stage simultaneous equation model is applied in this paper. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of...

Rosenstone develops a causal model to forecast political voting. The model seems reasonable; for example, it includes information about party, key issues, the economy, war, incumbency, region, and trends over time. Standard econometric methods are then used to determine how much weight should be...

Recently, the continuous double auction, i.e. the trading mechanism used in the majority of the financial markets, is the subject of an extensive study. In the present paper, a model of the continuous double auction with the completely random flow of the limit orders is studied. The main result...

PROBLEM SOLVING OF FORECASTING ON SHORT PERIODS IN THE CASE OF TRANSITIONAL STRUCTURE-CHANGING CHARACTER OF DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICS IN THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE SEASONAL AND STOCHASTIC COMPONENTS IN TIME SERIES. MODEL OF NONLINEAR-ADDITIVE SEASONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MULTIPLICATIVE STOCHASTIC...

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspecification are considered from a forecasting perspective. My model allows for small departures from the martingale difference sequence hypothesis by including a nonlinear component, formulated as a general, integrable transformation of the...

Romer (1993) suggests that universities should undertake experiments that would test the value of mandatory attendance for economics courses. He presents evidence showing that those who attended his classes received higher grades on his exams and concluded that “an important part of the...